NFL Week 14 Picks
With playoff spots and seeding all still open, Week 14 is a hugely important week for over half the teams in the NFL. The high level of competition this week has NFL betting lines opening all over the map this weekend. Here are the best bets to make on Week 14 of the 2018 NFL season.
Week 14 Betting Bullet Points
- Chicago Bears 5-1 ATS at home this season, tied best in the NFL
- Los Angeles Rams 5-5-2 ATS as favourites, the only team in NFC favoured in every game
- Miami Dolphins 5-1 ATS at home this season
- New England Patriots 3-3 ATS on the road this season
- Baltimore Ravens held last three opponents to 255 yards or less
- Kansas City Chiefs 1-3-1 ATS their last five games
Game of the Week – Chicago Bears vs. Los Angeles Rams
Two of the league’s top young quarterbacks and exciting head coach square off on Sunday night. The Chicago Bears have Mitchell Trubisky back this week after the sophomore signal caller missed two weeks. The Los Angeles Rams are coming off a tougher than expected win over the Detroit Lions, but continue to roll with the best record in the NFL.
The Rams look nearly unstoppable this season and seeing them as only a 3.0-point favourite is a juicy option. Of course, the Bears have their own offensive mastermind that will try and match plays with Sean McVay.
“The Rams also have the best rushing offence on the road this season, averaging 158.7 yards per game.”
Matt Nagy has done a great job in his first year as the Chicago Bears head coach with his play calling and coaching abilities elevating the Bears offence this season. The Bears defence has played elite for most of the season but did look a little gassed last week against the New York Giants.
While the Bears have a better defence than the Rams, the Rams have the best defensive player in the league. Aaron Donald could break the NFL sack record this season. His 16.5 leave his just 6.0 away from tying the NFL record.
With all the Rams have going for them and the fact they need to win to stay a game ahead of the New Orleans Saints, it is too hard to bet against the Rams (even against a tough opponent such as the Bears).
Pick: Los Angeles Rams (-180) to win
Best Point Spread – Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots
One game the New England Patriots historically struggle with is their annual trip down to Miami. The Patriots are only 1-4-1 ATS in Miami the last six seasons and have won just once in Miami since 2013. The Patriots open as 8.0-point favourites against the Miami Dolphins, a number a little too high to feel confident betting.
The Patriots are just coasting along right now, playing good but not great football. Also, Tom Brady historically sees a bit of a dip in production come December. It happened last December when Brady and Patriots could only muster 248 yards of offence in a 27-20 loss against Miami.
“The numbers were even worse at the end of the 2015 NFL season when Tom Brady completed just 12 passes for 134 yards in a 20-10 loss.”
While Tom Brady should have a better game on Sunday, the Dolphins getting more than a touchdown at home is too big of a point spread to avoid.
Pick: Miami Dolphins +8.0 vs. New England Patriots
Upset Alert – Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens
As great as the Kansas City Chiefs have looked all season, they are in for arguably their toughest defensive test on Sunday against the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens have the right mixture on their team to pull off the big upset on Sunday. The Ravens run the ball excellently, ranking eighth in rushing yards this season and topping 207 yards each of the last three weeks. The Ravens also have the top defence in the NFL, ranking first in points allowed, second in passing yards and first in yards per play.
“The Ravens also have won their last three games in Kansas City”
With the weather getting colder, a run game and a great defence is often a recipe for success. The Chiefs run game took a hit with the release of Kareem Hunt while their defence struggled against the lowly Raiders last weekend. It also will be interesting to see how Patrick Mahomes plays in temperatures below freezing. For those reasons, we are smelling an upset in Kansas City on Sunday.
Pick: Baltimore Ravens (+245) to win
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