2018 Australian Open Odds, Predictions
The Australian Open begins on Sunday at 7:00 PM EST in Melbourne. The tournament runs for two weeks, with the Women’s Finals starting at 12:00 PM EST on Saturday, January 27 and the Men’s Finals on Sunday’ January 28 at 3:30 AM EST.
Men’s Singles Australian Open Predictions
The usual suspects top the odds to win the 2018 Australian open. Reigning champion Roger Federer opens the tournament as the favourite at +185. Not too far behind is Rafael Nadal at +425 and Novak Djokovic +575. (Odds for all winners are listed below).
Over the last decade, the Australian Open has been dominated by Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic. The two have combined to win ten of the last 12 tournaments. Nadal has a single victory over the previous 12 years (2009) and has finished runner-up three times including last year. The only other person outside of Federer, Djokovic and Nadal to win the tournament is Stan Wawrinka (who won the tournament back in 2014).
The most prominent name missing from the tournament is Andy Murray. Although Murray has never won the competition, he has five times finished as the runner-up.
Nadal and Federer sit on opposite ends of the bracket, setting up another Final between the two tennis legends. Federer defied the odds last season, winning two Grand Slams, including the Australian Open. Federer is halfway to 37 or ancient in tennis years.
Looking at the draw, Rafael Nadal has the easiest path of the three favourites to the 2018 Finals. Roger Federer (world number two) and Novak Djokovic (world number 14) sit on the same side of the draw, along with world number four, five, seven and nine. Also, some feisty underdogs (more on that later) could get in the way of Federer and Djokovic, including Feliciano Lopez and (+33900) and Australian Jordan Thompson (+50900).
It is challenging to wager against the three favourites, despite their age. Until they show signs of slippage, they remain the best bets to win any major tennis tournament. Nadal’s easier path to the Finals makes him the best wager of the favourites.
Best Underdog In Men’s Singles
Trying not to sound too much like a homer, but Canadian Denis Shapovalov at +8300 is a good wager to capture his first ever Grand Slam title. Shapovalov is coming off a fourth-round finish at the U.S. Open. Shapovalov, who is on Nadal’s side of the draw, beat Nadal last year in Montreal, for his first win ever over a top-10 opponent.
Young but fearless, Shapovalov will challenge the hard-serving Milos Raonic (+4000) for the title of Canada’s best tennis player this year. For those looking to wager multiple underdogs, other good options include Jack Sock (+6300), Mischa Zverev (+41900) and Alexei Popyrin (+74900).
Women’s Singles Australian Open Predictions
The woman’s field in the Australian open is much more wide open without Serena Williams. Five contests range in odds from +725 to +950, including world number one Simona Halep (+725). Outside of Angelique Kerber, none of the five favourites have reached an Australian Open Finals.
While Simona Halep is the favourite, she is not overly successful in her career at the Australian Open. In eight appearances, Halep twice made it to the quarterfinals, but never any further. She only has two Finals appearances in 32 Grand Slams, losing at the French Open in 2014 and 2017. Despite her being just 26 and still improving, it is hard to wager her to win her first Major at the tournament, which she is the least successful.
The best approach to wagering on the Women’s Finals is to pick one of the favourites outside of Simona Halep and also wager on Coco Vandeweghe. Vandeweghe made the semi-finals of the tournament last year, losing 7-6, 2-6, 3-6 to Venus Williams. She is too coming off a semi-finals performance at the U.S. Open, losing to Madison Keys in straight sets. She is entering her prime and poised to win her first Grand Slam.
The favourite to pair with Coco Vandeweghe is Caroline Wozniacki (+950). The two world top-ten players are set to meet in the quarterfinals. Wozniacki did not make it past a quarterfinal at a Major last season but sits as the number two tennis player in the world. She is 25-10 in her career at the Australian Open is a smart bet to make the quarterfinals this year (as she has a favourable draw). The winner between Vandeweghe and Wozniacki is a great bet to go on to win the tournament.
Best Underdogs In Women’s Singles
While Canada has a Canadian on the Women’s side of the tournament, it is difficult to justify wagering on Eugenie Bouchard. Bouchard is continuing to struggle and is too risky a wager at +15400. The best underdog to wager on is Daria Gavrilova (+6900). Gavrilova has made back-to-back fourth-round appearances at the Australian Open. Her draw is not overly burdensome. She could face Venus Willaims in the fourth round. However, as great as Venus Williams is, she is 37 now and coming off a lengthy tennis season.
A few other underdogs to consider a small wager on including Elise Mertens (+11900) and Donna Vekic (+26900). Both have favourable draws and could make some noise at the tournament.
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