Betting Picks For Covington vs. Masvidal At UFC 272
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Betting Picks For Covington vs. Masvidal At UFC 272

UFC features another mega-sized main event, this time between Jorge Masvidal and Colby Covington. The former best friends have become mortal enemies, and finally, they’ll settle their bad blood inside the octagon at UFC 272 on March 5. Keep reading to get our expert betting picks for the Covington vs. Masvidal fight!

Let us begin with the current UFC 272 betting odds. Canada’s best sportsbooks have the fight lines rather lopsided with Covington the heavy favourite to win. Here’s how the moneyline odds are currently pegged:

Masvidal vs. Covington Moneyline Pick

It’s not often that we say the betting sites have the odds wrong, but the Masvidal vs. Covington moneyline is one of those rare instances. That’s not to say we don’t think Colby should be favoured — he most definitely should —but not by this much. His betting line to win has continued to lengthen in the lead-up to UFC 272 and were starting to believe Masvidal might be worth a “flyer” bet based on a pure value standpoint.

We should preface by saying this: Covington should win at UFC 272. He stood toe to toe with Kamru Usman twice — winning four of ten rounds. That’s not something Masvidal can lay claim to, as he was soundly beaten by the same Usman twice (including the most recent highlight-reel KO defeat). But here’s the thing: the best fighters don’t always win. On any given night, any fighter can beat another. And make no mistake about it, “Street Jesus”, as Masvidal is called, can win this one.

Here are two reasons why we believe that. The first is Masvidal’s takedown defence is pretty solid — as he proved in the first meeting with Usman. Covington’s specialty is, of course, wrestling, and he’d be smart to lean on that to beat Masvidal, not necessarily standing up and striking (more on this shortly). While we don’t expect Masvidal to completely negate Covington’s grappling, he also won’t be overwhelmed by it.

And reason two, when the fight is standing up, you never want to count out Masvidal, who is as dangerous as they come. Given how much animosity there is between the two rivals, we can’t imagine there not being several minutes of straight-up boxing. It’s these moments where Masvidal will have his opportunity to end the fight, which is more than doable with his power and precision. All it takes is one perfectly-placed blow to stop a fight, after all.

With all this said, we’re betting Masvidal. Remember, this wagering pick is motivated by betting value more than anything else. We’re full of the belief Covington is the better, more complete fighter, but his steep odds make a bet on him not worthwhile unless you like small payouts (we don’t). Instead, we advise placing a small wager on Masvidal in case the upset strikes. At his betting price, even a tiny amount of money can lead to a hefty payout with an upset win.

Best Convington-Masvidal Prop Bet Betting

Covington vs. Masvidal goes far beyond just who wins and who loses. No, the real betting fun is in the prop bets, which for a fight of this magnitude, is a long list of options. But if there’s a prop bet for Convington-Masvidal to wager on, it’s the fight going the distance or not. It’s a simple yes-no bet, which has the current betting odds as follows:

Here again, we’re going to buck the oddsmakers and wager on the underdog option, no, it won’t go the distance, because this fight has a high chance of ending early. We’ve already told you about Masvidal’s stoppage potential — which is really the only way for him to win this fight. There’s almost no way he’ll outpoint a wrestler the calibre of Covington. But at the same time, Covington might score the finish early.

On the surface, Covington stopping Jorge seems completely silly. After all, Covington has just one non-decision victory in the last five years — and not a true finish either, it was an injury-related stoppage (against Tyron Woodley). Furthermore, Masvidal has only been stopped four times (two submissions, two KOs) over the course of his career, which includes a whopping fifty fights. The betting consensus seems to be that if Colby wins, it’ll be by decision after wrestling Jorge around all-fight long.

We’re not nearly as convinced. Don’t underestimate Covington’s striking ability. He landed some huge blows on Usman in the rematch, which had the pound-for-pound king noticeably wobbly. In the same respect, Covington proved he had a chin to withstand strikes — and even avoided an early KO at one point versus Usman. When this fight is standing up, which we said earlier is happening given the bad blood between the two, it’s not unthinkable that Covington can drop Masvidal for good.

And on that note, here’s one last thing to consider: after the brutal knockout Masvidal took last time out, will he ever be the same? Many fighters — in both MMA and boxing — failed to recover after being on the receiving of a brutal finish like Masvidal’s. As tough as Gamebred is, one has to wonder whether his chin will be the same. All these reasons make betting no on the fight distance all the more intriguing.

How To Bet On UFC 272?

We’ve spent this entire article hyping up Masvidal vs. Covington, but of course, there’s a full fight card at UFC 272. There are 12 other bouts scheduled beyond the main event with the likes of Rafael dos Anjos, Kevin Holland, and Greg Hardy in action. To bet on UFC 272, visit one of the online sportsbooks listed underneath. They’ll carry all the sports bets types for UFC on this night, including moneyline, over/under, and props!