Andrew Wilson | Wed 07/07/2021 - 06:49 EDT

UFC 264 Betting Preview

UFC 264 Betting Preview
McGregor and Poirier headline another UFC event – this time to decide which fighter wins the trilogy. Even without a title on the line, this is one of the biggest UFC events of 2021.

The UFC's biggest star – Conor McGregor – is coming back for another fight when he faces Dustin Poirier for a third time at UFC 264. Find our thoughts on the fight and who we think will win between Gilbert Burns and Stephen Thompson in our UFC 264 betting preview.

Main Event: Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier III

Fighter 1BetwayBetwayFighter 2
Conor McGregor1.831.95Dustin Poirier

The trilogy comes to a head at UFC 264, with Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier looking to win the rubber match.  

At UFC 257, it was Dustin Poirier coming out on top, avenging his loss to McGregor at UFC 178 by beating him by KO/TKO. McGregor was a heavy favourite in that fight – but with Poirier winning, the odds on the third bout are much closer (almost a pick em').

With McGregor spending more time away from the fighting world – to follow other pursuits – he is becoming a harder fighter to predict. He lost to Poirier, but in his previous fight, knocked out Donald Cerrone in only 40 seconds. He still has the power that made him the biggest draw in the UFC for years. However, he needs to defend better if he is to win the third fight.

I personally feel McGregor was not ready to get back in the octagon when the two fought at UFC 257 – which McGregor admitted after the fight his inactivity in the ring caused him to lose.

He should be much more prepared this time and will not succumb to Poirier's low leg kicks. If McGregor is defending strikes better, Poirier must take the fight to the ground and attempt to submit the former champ. Submitting McGregor is a possibility. Of his five losses in his career, four have come by submission.

But, backing McGregor after a loss is the smartest bet you can make on UFC 264. He never has lost consecutive fights – and has won rematches against fighters following a loss. The Nate Diaz bouts are a perfect example of why taking McGregor in the rematch is a smart bet.

Diaz submitted McGregor in the second round in their first fight. However, in the rematch, McGregor had his wits about him – and kept the fight upright. He landed hits and defended excellent – on route to a win by decision.

Overall, McGregor should be much more prepared for this fight. He showed he still has the power to knock out Poirier. He just needs the determination to train and defend better, which we expect he will do in the lead-up to the rematch.

Poirier will fight hard again, and if he can take McGregor to the ground, he has a chance at clinching the trilogy. However, a prepared McGregor, coming off a loss and spending much more time training, is a scarer sight and something you do not want to bet against.

Pick: Conor McGregor (1.83) to Win the Fight

McGregor to win by KO/TKO

Fighter/MethodSports Interaction
McGregor to Win by KOTKO

As we mentioned in our preview, McGregor still has the power that made him a dominant force in the UFC. We expect him to put that power on full display at UFC 264 – and expect him to win the rematch against Poirier by knocking him out.

Pick: McGregor to Win by KO, TKO, or DQ (2.15)

Co-Main Event: Gilbert Burns vs. Stephen Thompson

Fighter 1Sports InteractionSports InteractionFighter 2
Gilbert Burns2.151.69Stephen Thompson

Joining the main card is a highly anticipated fight between Gilbert Burns and Stephen Thompson – with the winner potentially getting a shot at Kamaru Usman for the UFC Welterweight Championship. Burns is coming off a loss to Usman at UFC 258 and opens as the underdog against Thompson.

Thompson has only one fight in the last year and a half – a win against Geoff Neal in December. Before that victory, Thompson has been a bit unreliable, winning only two of his previous six fights. He also had a draw against Tyron Woodley and a loss in the rematch. Tyronn Woodley lost to Gilbert Burns last May.

While Thompson is a talented Welterweight, we are backing Burns in this fight as the chance to bet him as an underdog is too attractive to pass up.

Burns is an intelligent fighter and will use his skills – especially in wrestling – in the octagon against Thompson. He will force Thompson to lose his patient in the ring, which opens up more opportunities for Burns to take the fight to the ground.

On the ground, Thompson is outmatched by Burns. He is slick on the ground and excellent at submitting opponents. Thompson will not go down easy – and I can see this fight going into the third round. However, by that point, it will be Burns's fight to lose – and as Thompson presses to outscore Burns (or even knock him out), Burns will get the win.

Pick: Gilbert Burn (2.15) to Win the Fight

Best Online Sportsbooks to Bet on the UFC

Find the best online sportsbooks to bet on UFC 264 below. New users signing up through the links underneath can snag an exclusive welcome bonus – perfect for betting on the winner of McGregor vs. Poirier III or any other fight on the main card and prelims.

Category : Sports Blog

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