Andrew Wilson |  Fri 11/06/2021 - 13:39 EDT

UFC 263 Betting Preview

UFC 263 Betting Preview

Two rematches with title belts on the line headline a stacked card at UFC 263. Get ready for the event, scheduled for June 12 with our UFC 263 betting predictions.

With the Welterweight and Flyweight titles on the line when the UFC heads to Arizona, UFC 263 is shaping into the perfect way to enjoy a Saturday in June. We have dissected the biggest fights on the card in our UFC 263 Betting Preview to prepare for the event.

Main Event: Israel Adesanya vs. Marvin Vettori

Fighter 1Sports InteractionSports InteractionFighter 2
Israel Adesanya1.333.20Marvin Vettori

After losing to Jan Blachowicz in his light heavyweight debut at UFC 259, Adesanya is back in the middleweight division, putting his 20-0 record (as a middleweight) and the Middleweight Championship belt against Marvin Vettori.

Adesanya is one of the most dominant and fierce fighters the UFC has ever seen – and opens as a significant favourite against Vettori. However, these two have fought before – and it is arguably the closest Adesanya’s ever come to losing as a middleweight.

Their previous bout went all three rounds and ended with Adesanya winning by split decision. Since that fight, Adesanya has turned into the force he is in the UFC – winning the Middleweight Championship, unifying it at UFC 243 and defending it twice. Vettori is undefeated since the fight – with two wins against ranked opponents (Kevin Holland and Jack Hermansson).

That fight was three years ago and only went three rounds. Adesanya has shown since the fight he is an even better fighter when the scheduled bout is five rounds. He is three wins by unanimous decision in five-round fights.

If Vettori had faced more than one current top-ten middleweight, we could maybe talk ourselves into a similar result to their first fight. However, Adesanya’s rise in the division and many impressive performances have us betting on him to win by unanimous decision*.

Pick: Israel Adesanya (1.33) to Win the Fight

Check Sports Interaction closer to the date for the method of victory prop bets.

Co-Main Event: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno

Fighter 1Sports InteractionSports InteractionFighter 2
Brandon Moreno3.101.34Deiveson Figueiredo

After a draw between the fighters at UFC 256 – Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno are fighting in a rematch for the UFC Flyweight Championship. The fight ended in a draw after Figueiredo was deducted one point for a groin strike in the third round.

Figueiredo’s mistake – which did not cost him the title – could be due to his turnaround. Figueiredo set the record for the quickest turnaround as a UFC champion, having fought only three weeks earlier at UFC 255. Moreno also fought at UFC 255 – making our last point somewhat moot.

Looking back at that fight, it was quite close, and Moreno is offering excellent betting value as the underdog in the rematch. Moreno landed nearly as many strikes as Figueiredo (including 25 more to the hit) and twice as many takedowns. If he was more effective when the fight went to the mat, he could have pulled off the upset.

With much more time between fights – both fighters have much more time to prepare. The last time Moreno had this much time to train was before UFC 255 (eight months). His fight at UFC 255 was arguably the best performance of his career – winning by last-second TKO (in the first round) against Brandon Royval.

Overall, there is plenty to love about both fighters going into the rematch. But with the great betting value on Brandon Moreno and the fact we are giving him a 50/50 chance at winning, we are betting on him to win the rematch at UFC 263.

Pick: Brandon Moreno (3.10) to Win the UFC Flyweight Championship  

Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards

Fighter 1BodogBodogFighter 2
Nate Diaz4.251.22Leon Edwards
 

A minor injury to Nate Diaz caused the UFC to reschedule this bout from UFC 262, but it remains the first five-round UFC fight not to be for a belt or as the main event and Diaz’s first fight in over a year and a half.

Edwards has a lot to fight for in this bout. A win against Diaz sets him up nicely for a fight against Kamaru Usman for the Welterweight Championship.

The injury also suggests the time around from the Octagon is making Diaz’s return difficult. He has been away from the game for an extended time before – not fighting for three years between August 2016 and 2019. He returned for two fights – won the first against Anthony Pettis and lost the second to Jorge Masvidal.

Overall, it is hard to back a fighter with two professional fights in the last five years, especially when returning against a legitimate contender in the Welterweight division.

Pick: Leon Edwards (1.22) to Win the Fight

Paul Craig vs. Jamahal Hill

Fighter 1BetwayBetwayFighter 2
Paul Craig3.001.36Jamahal Hill
 

Another rescheduled fight sees 14th ranked light heavyweight Paul Craig takes on 15th ranked Jamahal Hill. While Craig holds a one-spot difference in the rankings, it is Hill who looks more likely to climb higher after impressive showings in 2020.

Hill is undefeated in his MMA career – and coming off his most impressive win in the UFC – a second-round knockout against Ovince Saint Preux. Craig is undefeated since June 2019 and has two “Performances of the Night” during that stretch.

However, Hill’s style and power match up well against Craig. Hill showed it in his last victory – and with time to heal (their first fight was set for March), we expect he will show it off again in a win over Craig.

Pick: Jamahal Hill (1.36) to Win the Fight

Best Online Sportsbooks to Bet on the UFC

Find the best online sportsbooks to bet on UFC 263 below. New users from Canada can join through the links underneath to receive an exclusive welcome bonus, which you can use to bet on all the fights at UFC 263.

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