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UFC 258 Betting Predictions
After a few delays, we are finally getting the fight between Kamaru Usman and Gilbert Burns for the UFC Welterweight Championship. Find our betting picks on the fight and other scheduled bouts at UFC 258 here.
A highly anticipated fight between Kamaru Usman and Gilbert Burns for the Welterweight Championship headlines UFC 258 on February 13. There are a few other great fights on the card, and we may see a few more announcements and changes over the next ten days. Find our UFC 258 betting predictions below.
*Please note the previously scheduled fight between Uriah Hall and Chris Weidman has moved from UFC 258 to UFC 261 after a positive Covid-19 test.
Main Event – Kamaru Usman vs. Gilbert Burns for the Welterweight Championship
|UFC Odds||UFC Odds|
|Kamaru Usman||1.42||2.80||Gilbert Burns|
After a positive Covid-19 test pulled Burns out of UFC 251 – UFC fans are finally getting the Welterweight fight they have been waiting for. Usman opens as the favourite over in his teammate – in a fight that should be closer than the UFC betting odds suggest.
Usman enters UFC 258 on a 16-fight winning streak, including two consecutive title defences. Burns has won six-straight, with his last two wins garnering him the “Performance of the Night.”
Despite winning five of his last six fights by decision, Kamaru Usman ranks third in the UFC pound-for-pound rankings. His wrestling style results in him controlling opponents and dominating matches – allowing him to score higher in most rounds and win the fight.
Burns brings diverse styles into the Octagon – allowing him to take advantage of his opponent’s weaknesses to win fights. Both fighters beat Tyron Woodley – the former UFC Welterweight Champion – by decision after five rounds.
While Usman has a few advantages in this fight – stamina and his ability to adapt a winning style against opponents – we like the underdog money on Burns.
In his last fight against Woodley, Burns showed he could handle five rounds in the ring. He is also familiar with Usman’s style and tendencies – having trained with him for years. Burns also had a chance to watch Usman apply a smothering wrestling approach against Jorge Masvidal at UFC 251. Since that fight was back in July – Burns has had time to train and can use a different approach against Usman – to minimize his effectiveness. We like Burns to pull off the upset.
Pick: Gilbert Burns (2.80) to win the UFC Welterweight Championship
Maycee Barber vs. Alexa Grasso
|UFC Odds||UFC Odds|
|Alex Grasso||1.71||2.10||Maycee Barber|
Although Maycee Barber is coming off her first loss and coming off a knee injury (which caused her to not fight for a year), we like her in her return to the Octagon against Alexa Grasso.
Barber is a strong and well-rounded fighter. Her punches and elbows are some of the best in the division, leading to her last five wins (before her loss to Roxanne Modafferi at UFC 246).
Grasso’s results since joining the UFC in 2017 are mixed. She owns a 3-3, alternating wins and losses (her last fight was a win). Five of her six fights have gone to decision – which does not bode well for her against Barber.
Barber lands strikes at one of the highest rates in the UFC – and giving her three rounds to land a knockout blow when trying to win by decision will not work. Grasso needs to submit Barber to win the fight – but Barber is a strong takedown defender. Barber takes the fight by KO/TKO.
Pick: Maycee Barber (2.10) to Win the Fight
Polyana Viana vs. Mallory Martin
|UFC Odds||UFC Odds|
|Mallory Martin||1.57||2.35||Polyana Viana|
Once considered a top prospect in the women’s division, Polyana Viana is coming into this fight off a tough stretch. Although she won her last fight – against Emily Whitmire in August 2020 – she had lost three straight before – including her first loss by submission. Viana was considered a quality fighter on the ground, but she is losing favour in the rankings and the eyes of the sportsbooks.
That is partly why we are going with Mallory Martin to win the fight. We also are going with Martin to win after watching her put up a very impressive performance in her last fight. Despite her opponent – Hannah Cifers – not making weight and Martin getting knocked down in the first round, she won the fight.
Pick: Mallory Martin (1.57) to Win the Fight
Ian Heinisch vs. Kelvin Gastelum
|UFC Odds||UFC Odds|
|Kelvin Gastelum||1.42||2.60||Ian Heinisch|
Ninth-ranked Middleweight Kelvin Gastelum takes on 15th-ranked Ian Heinisch in one of the better fights on the undercard at UFC 258 (although there is a chance it moves onto the main card). Despite losing three straight – dating back to his defeat against Israel Adesanya for the Middleweight Championship – Gastelum is a moderate favourite against Heinisch.
Gastelum has not done as well as expected since his return to the Middleweight Division. Since returning from 170 to 185, he 3-4 (1). Gastelum needs to win this fight or return to Welterweight. There is also an off chance he is cut from the UFC if he does lose four straight.
With Gastelum having so much on the line, we expect him to have his best fight in nearly two years. Heinisch is not an overwhelmingly gifted fighter. He got lucky in his win against Gerald Meerschaert – knocking him out in the first round. If not for that win, he would also be on a three-fight losing streak.
Pick: Kelvin Gastelum (1.42) to Win the Fight
Best Online Sportsbooks to Bet on UFC 258
Find the best online sportsbooks to bet on every fight at UFC 258 below. They are offering bonuses to new users signing up through the links underneath. Sign up today and get ready for UFC 258, which takes place on February 13, 2021, in Las Vegas.
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