Andrew Wilson |  Wed 20/01/2021 - 13:15 EST

UFC 257: McGregor vs. Poirier 2 Predictions

UFC 257: McGregor vs. Poirier 2 Predictions

The first UFC pay-per-view of 2021 is a big one – headlined by lightweights Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier. Find our predictions on the main event and other fights at UFC 257 here!

The UFC starts 2021 off with two of their biggest fighters headlining UFC 257 on January 23 (location TBA). While the event does not have any title belts on the line, winners at this event should see their stock rise significantly. You can find our betting picks for UFC 257 below.  

Main Event Predictions: Conor McGregor vs. Justin Poirier

To Win the Fight sports-interaction sports-interaction To Win the Fight

Conor McGregor

1.43 2.70 Dustin Poirier

Previous Fight  

These two fought once before, all the way back at UFC 178 on September 27, 2014 – before either ever had a title fight or was a household name in the UFC. Conor McGregor won the 1:46 into the first round by TKO.

Since that fight, Dustin Poirier is 10-2 (1) and won the Lightweight Champion and then lost it at UFC 242. McGregor is 6-2 since that fight, winning the Featherweight Championship and Lightweight Champion – becoming the first fight two hold two titles at once along the way.

Main Event Winner

When McGregor walked away from the UFC following his loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 229, many thought his days as an elite fighter were over. However, in January 2020, McGregor returned to the Octagon to face Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone. McGregor destroyed Cerrone, winning by TKO only forty seconds into the first round.

McGregor’s performance at that fight has also betting on him to win against Dustin Poirier. He clearly is still focused on his MMA skills – even with his ventures into the whisky world or beef with the Paul – brothers. He has the speed and power to overwhelm Dustin Poirier.

Poirier – who is a much better fighter than he was in 2014 – should put up a fight, but McGregor is still an all-time great fighter, and until someone other than Nurmagomedov put him in his place, we are not betting against him.

Pick: Conor McGregor (1.43) to Win the Fight

Total Rounds

Total Rounds 10bet 10bet Total Rounds

Over 2.5 Rounds

1.86 1.81 Under 2.5 Rounds

Unlike the first fight between these two, we expect this fight will last longer than two minutes, which is why we are betting it will last over 2.5 rounds. Poirier is a better fighter than he was the first time these two fought. He also has a long history now of fights lasting longer – with six of his previous eight contests going into at least the third round.

Also, this fight – while not an exhibition match – is not as high stakes as a typical fight featuring one (or both) of these fighters. We are betting this fight starts a little slower – some showmanship, spectacle, and quick strikes – before each fighter starts throwing everything they have at each other.  

Pick: Over 2.5 Rounds (1.86)

Method of Victory

Method of Victory betway betway betway betway betway Method of Victory

Conor McGregor

To Win by KO, TKO, DQ, or Submission 1.57 To Win by Decision 2.30
Draw 51.00 +To Win by Decision 3.00  +To Win by KO, TKO, DQ, or Submission 1.36 Dustin Poirier

We are betting on McGregor to win and, while we think the fight will last over 2.5 rounds, we believe McGregor ends it before the final bell. McGregor has 22 career wins, but only two have been by decision – and only one win by decision in a five-round fight. Betting McGregor to win by KO, TKO, DQ, or submission is also a great way to get some extra juice when betting on Conor McGregor to win the fight.

Pick: Conor McGregor (1.57) to Win by KO, TKO, DQ, or Submission

Other Predictions for UFC 257

At the time of publication, UFC odds are not available on fights outside the main event. However, that does not stop us from sharing our picks on some of the other bouts announced at UFC 257. We also expect the card to eventually name another marquee fight to serve as the co-main event behind McGregor and Poirier.

Jessica Eye vs. Joanne Calderwood

Jessica Eye (the number six ranked flyweight) is on a bit of a slump lately – getting knocked out against Valentina Shevchenko and missing weight at her last two fights. We are betting her slump continues against Joanne Calderwood (the number seven ranked flyweight).

Calderwood is a talented kickboxer and with good standing defence. Her weakness – ground defence – is not a glaring problem against Eye – who is known for her boxing and agility and not her ability to take a fight to the ground. Take Calderwood to win once the odds are available.

Pick: Joanne Calderwood to Win

Khalil Rountree Jr. vs. Marcin Prachnio

A fight between two light heavyweight wraps up our betting picks for UFC 257. Khalil Rountree Jr. nearly retired after his fight against Sam Alvey was cancelled due to the Covid-19 Pandemic. Now he finds himself fighting on a Conor McGregor headlined pay-per-view. Marcin Prachnio is 0-3 since joining the UFC in 2018. He needs a win.

We are betting on Rountree Jr. and his return from the brink of retirement beating Prachnio. That is not the only reason why we are going with Rountree Jr. to win. Rountree Jr. is a powerful light heavyweight with a two and a half inch reach advantage over Prachnio. Prachnio has been a glass jaw in his UFC career, losing each fight by KO/TKO in the first round. Power and motivation beat out desperation.

Pick: Khalil Rountree Jr. to Win

Best Online Sportsbook to Bet on UFC 257

Find the best online sportsbooks to bet on the UFC below. They have odds available on the main event and will continue opening more markets the closer we get to the event. Join through the links underneath to receive an excellent welcome bonus!

Rank Bonus Bonus Offer Review Visit
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