UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa

UFC 253 Betting Odds and Predictions

Rescheduled fights. Suddenly a vacant championship up for grabs. No venue set a month before the event. UFC 253 is one of the most ragtag put together UFC events since their early days. But despite all that, with two championship fights, some attractive UFC betting odds on some underdogs will like to win, and a great main card overall, UFC 253 on September 26 (originally September 19) is sure to entertain fans and bettors alike.

UFC 253 Main Event – Israel Adesanya vs. Paulo Costa

To Win the UFC Middleweight Championship			To Win the UFC Middleweight Championship
Israel Adesanya	-170	+140	Paulo Costa

The trash talk between these two has been flowing for a while now, as these two were originally slated to meet at UFC 248. And after Israel Adesanya defeated the Middleweight Championship at UFC 248, the trash talk has continued.

The UFC betting odds on this fight are close, as the 19-0 Adesanya and the 13-0 Paulo Costa both bring an undefeated record into the Octagon. This fight is all about striking, as these two fighters have combined for 25 KO/TKOs in their careers.

The odds on this fight are close, but if you look at both fighters’ resumes and styles, you could argue they could be closer. Both fighters are coming off the exact same result in their last fight – a unanimous decision against Yoel Romero.

Costa is looking to attack Adesanya relentlessly. Costa leads all UFC fighters in significant strikes landed per minute at 8.43. However, the reach advantage for Adesanya will make striking him at that rate a challenge. Adesanya has an eight-inch reach advantage (80.00” vs. 72.00”) and 4.5-inch leg reach advantage (44.00” vs. 39.5”) over Costa.

Adesanya is also a good, if not great defender overall, with better defence against orthodox fighters (which Costa is). Orthodox fighters do not land many significant strikes against Adesanya, and even though Costa is working on his leg striking in the lead up to this bout, it likely is not enough to pull off the upset.

Pick: Israel Adesanya (-170) to Retain the Middleweight Championship

Co-Main Event – Dominick Reyes vs. Jan Blachowicz

To Win the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship			To Win the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship
Dominick Reyes	-200	+172	Jan Blachowicz

With a contract dispute between Jon Jones and the UFC ending with Jones vacating the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship, the UFC was suddenly without a champion. However, they were quick to act, adding a fight between top-ranked light heavyweight Dominick Reyes and third-ranked Jan Blachowicz.

Reyes is coming off a loss to Jones for the Light Heavyweight Championship at UFC 247, which was the first loss of his MMA career. Blachowicz comes into the fight with seven wins in his last eight fights, four of which garnered him “Performance of the Night.”

His hot streak and balanced fighting style have us liking Blachowicz to pull off the upset. Blachowicz, despite being the shorter fighter, has a slight advantage in reach and leg reach. He also defends significant strikes at a higher percentage than Reyes. Overall, this should be a highly entertaining fight, with Blachowicz our pick to win.

Pick: Jan Blachowicz (+172) to win the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship

Claudia Gadelha vs. Xiaonan Yan

To Win the Fight			To Win the Fight
Claudia Gadelha	+110	-138	Xiaonan Yan

A great clash between two strawweights rounds out our free picks for UFC 253. Xiaonan Yan opens as a small favourite over Claudia Gadelha in what should be the third fight on the main card. Yan comes into the fight not having lost a fight since 2010, while Gadelha is trying to climb the rankings for a chance at her first title fight since 2016.

While Yan is a slight favourite, there is better betting value on Gadelha. Gadelha is a more well-rounded fighter, capable of winning a fight standing up or on the ground. Yan is more of a pure striker, winning by either KO/TKO or decision. She rarely attempts a takedown, something that has not hindered who yet in her MMA career.

However, this is Yan’s biggest test yet. Gadelha is considered the 12th best pound-for-pound fighter in the women’s division. This fight will be close, but we like the extra value on Gadelha.

Pick: Claudia Gadelha (+110) to Win the Fight

Also, betting this fight to last over 2.5 rounds is a smart bet (odds unavailable but closer to the fight the market will open). That bet is the only bet at UFC 253 we think is worth parlaying (with any of our fight winner picks).

Best Sites to Bet on UFC 253

As the event’s start gets closer, more online sportsbooks will open more UFC 253 betting odds and markets on the event. So, with some extra time, why not read up on the best UFC 253 betting sites. When you find one you like, sign up through the link on their page or the table below to receive an exclude bonus – which you can use to bet on UFC 253 and any other UFC event.  

Category : Sports Blog

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