2021 Stanley Cup Game Five Betting Predictions
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2021 Stanley Cup Game Five Betting Predictions

The 2021 Stanley Cup Finals continue after the Canadiens saved their season on Monday night. Can they stay alive for another game, or is Tampa Bay winning the Stanley Cup in front of the home crowd?

The Canadiens staved off elimination (for now) with a gutsy performance in Game 4 against the Lightning. They now head to Tampa Bay, where the Lightning have been a wagon this postseason. Can Price and the boys force a Game 6, or is Tampa Bay winning the Cup on Wednesday night? Find out in our Stanley Cup Game 5 betting preview.

Why Tampa Bay Wins the Series in Game 5?

To Win Game 5Sports InteractionSports InteractionTo Win Game 5
Montreal2.781.47Tampa Bay

Even though the Montreal Canadiens won Game 5, the Tampa Bay Lightning were the better team overall for most of the game. They outshoot the Canadiens, they had more chances on the power-play, and the number of times they dinged a shot off of the post seemed countless. If you play that game out ten times, Tampa wins it seven or eight.

With Tampa Bay Lightning returning home for Game 5, we are betting on winning the Stanley Cup on Wednesday night. Tampa Bay has been better at home during the Stanley Cup Playoffs – posting an 8-3 record with a +24-goal differential (45 goals scored and 21 goals allowed), compared to a 7-4 record on the road with a +5-goal differential.

Montreal has failed to score three goals (or more) in six of their 11 road playoff games. They have scored more than four goals in one road playoffs game.  Tampa Bay’s offence at home this postseason is averaging more than four goals per game.

Tampa Bay’s offence should carry them to a win in Game 5 and give the franchise its second Stanley Cup in only nine months (remember that for NHL trivia in 20 years).

Tampa Bay Lightning To Win Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Finals
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Bet the Puckline on Tampa Bay to Increase Profit

PucklineSports InteractionSports InteractionPuckline
Montreal +1.51.632.33Tampa Bay -1.5

Tampa Bay’s been a pretty big favourite in every game this series – especially considering it is the Stanley Cup Finals. If you want to increase your profits betting on Game 5, bet on Tampa Bay on the puck line.

For the 2021 NHL Playoffs, Tampa Bay has won seven home games by at least two goals. Tampa Bay won their two home games against the Canadiens by six goals. The only game they did not win at home by two was that bizarro Game 7 against the New York Islanders.

Tampa Bay Lightnig To Win the Game by 1.5 Goals
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Is There Any Way the Montreal Canadiens can Come Back and Win the Series?

The outcomes in the National Hockey League are more random than, say, the NBA (wherein a typical season, a top-three seed team pretty much always wins the NBA Finals). The NHL has seen eighth-seed teams win the Cup and has more comebacks from teams down 3-0 in a series than the NBA and MLB combined (one for them combined and four for the NHL).

However, four teams out of how many even down 0-3 in an NHL Playoffs series came back and won? Including the 2021 NHL Playoffs, 198 teams have gone down 0-3 in a playoffs series. That means the Canadiens chance at a comeback (in a statistical sense) is 2.02%.

The current hockey betting odds they win the Stanley Cup is 17.00. There is no betting value taking the Montreal Canadiens coming back in the series.

Game 5 Over/Under Pick

Game TotalSports InteractionSports InteractionGame Total
Over 5.01.832.01Under 5.0

Game 4 saw the push hit as the Canadiens won 3-2 in overtime. Game 5 once again has a game total of 5.0 goals. Like in our Game 4 betting preview, we are going with the over (life is too short to bet a 5.0 goal hockey under).

As we mentioned earlier, Tampa Bay averages over four goals per game at home in the playoffs (4.09, to be exact). If their offence continues at that rate, it very likely the over hits.

It is also an elimination game for the Montreal Canadiens. If Tampa Bay is up 3-1 (or maybe even 4-1), the Canadiens likely pull their goaltender earlier than expected – to increase the chances they score late in the game. Pulling the goalie early also increases the chances the Lightning score an empty-net goal.

Over 5.0 Goals
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Game 5 Player Props

There are plenty of player props available on Game 5. Here are two we are betting on before the puck drops on Wednesday night.

Josh Anderson Over/Under 2.5 Shots

Josh Anderson Shot TotalSports InteractionSports InteractionJosh Anderson Shot Total
Over 2.5

Josh Anderson was the hero for the Montreal Canadiens on Monday night – scoring the opening goal and the overtime winner for the Habs (two goals on three shots). Anderson had one previous two-goal game this postseason (against the Vegas Golden Knights). He followed up that game with only two shots and no points.

For the playoffs, Anderson has skated in 21 games. In those 21 games, only six has he shot the puck three times or more. At 28.6% hitting the over 2.5 shots, we are going with under 2.5 shots for Anderson in Game 5 of the 2021 Stanley Cup Finals.

Under 2.5 Shots for Josh Anderson
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Victor Hedman Exact Goals and Assists

Victor Hedman Exact Goals + AssistsSports Interaction

Last year’s Conn Smythe Trophy winner Victor Hedman is having another solid run in the postseason with 18 points in 22 games. Of those 18 points, only two have come against the Canadiens (a goal and an assist in Game 3).

Hedman has not been held off the score sheet for more than three games in any series in the last two postseasons. We like him to contribute at least one point in Game 5.

Victor Hedman One Exact Goals + Assists
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Best Online Sportsbooks to Bet on the Stanley Cup Finals

Find the best online sportsbooks below to bet on the Stanley Finals. If you have not signed up yet, join through the links below to get a welcome bonus you can use to bet on the dozens of markets available on Game 5.