NFL Week 5 Betting Preview
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NFL Week 5 Betting Preview

<>Get ready for Week 5 of the NFL season with our NFL picks for the weekend – including the best favourite, underdog, under, and over bets.

Week 5 of the 2021 NFL Season features a great slate of games – headlined by the Sunday Night showdown between Kansas City and Buffalo. We cover that game in our NFL Week 5 betting preview plus the other best bets of the week.

Best Favourite – Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Is anything going right in Jacksonville this season? After their best game of the season (to move to 0-4), the Jaguars are in the news for all the wrong reasons. Their head coach Urban Meyer is in hot water after he was recorded at a bar with a woman (that was not his wife and half his age).

Now, it seems like a mutiny in Jacksonville is on the horizon – something the only winless team in the AFC cannot handle. Even if it is against an injured Titans team.

The Titans should run Derrick Henry down the Jaguars throat. The Jaguars are second in the NFL in missed tackles (36) and third in rushing touchdowns allowed (six). In three of Henry’s last five games against the Jaguars, he has eclipsed 159 yards rushing. In those three games, the Titans won by at least 21 points.

The only thing to monitor on this game is the health of Titans wide receivers Julio Jones and A.J. Brown. Without them, the Titans’ passing game was flat against the Jets. However, the Jets passing defence is significantly better than the Jags. The Jags rank last in the opponent’s completion percentage (75.2%) and adjusted yards per attempt (9.6). If Brown and Jones are ruled out, it should be a closer game. But even without them, the Titans will win.

Tennessee Titans To Win the Game
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Best Underdog – New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys

Did you know that Daniel Jones is significantly a better quarterback on the road versus at home? Jones stats on the road: 25 passing TDs, seven interceptions, 94.3 QB rating. Jones stats at home: 14 passing TDs, 16 inceptions, 77.2 QB rating. It is a wild contrast in performance and has us eyeballing the Giants as underdogs in Week 5.

NFL Week 10 Predictions

The Giants have one glaring issue on their offence this season – a league-worse 33.3% red zone touchdown rate. That is a stark contrast to the Cowboys who are scoring on 66.7% of trips inside the 20.

However, there are signs of improvement for the Giants. Saquon Barkley is coming off his best performance since 2019 (126 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns). Kenny Golladay and Evan Engram both look healthy – giving the Giants two big targets in the red zone.

The Cowboys are running the ball very effectively this season. They are second in the NFL averaging 165.8 rushing yards per game. While running the ball is helping them win games, three of their four games this season were decided by one score. Take Jones and the Giants to cover – especially if the line moves to +7.5.

New York Giants Cover +7.0
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Best Over – Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Four weeks into the 2021 NFL season, the Bills and Chiefs are tied for the second-most points scored in the NFL this season. Both teams are averaging 33.5 points per game and each team last week scored at least 40 points.

This game is a rematch of the 2021 AFC Championship and two 2022 Super Bowl contenders. The over/under of 55.0 easily hit on that game – a 38-24 win by the Chiefs. If the Bills played more aggressively, the game would have likely been higher scoring.

Settling for field goals against the Chiefs is never a smart game plan. The Bills kicked four field goals against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship – including two field goals of under 28 yards. The Bills should employ a much more aggressive game plan on Sunday night – and it will result in points.

NFL Week 10 Bet

The Chiefs’ defence is statistically one of the worst in the NFL this season. No team gives up more points per drive (3.34) or has worse expected points contributed by all defence (-75.94) than the Chiefs.

Statistically, the Bills have one of the best defences this season. However, the murderers' row of Davis Mills, Ben Roethlisberger, and Jacoby Brissett is the polar opposite of Patrick Mahomes in primetime as you can find. Bet on the over on Sunday night.  

Buffalo – Kansas City Over 56.5
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Best Under – Denver Broncos vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Assuming Teddy Bridgewater is out in Week 5 – the best under to bet is on the Denver Broncos and Pittsburgh Steelers game. The Steelers are a mess on offence. Ben Roethlisberger is consistently throwing behind the chains – resulting in punts and turnovers on downs.

Drew Lock is an enigmatic gunslinger. At times he looks good and plays aggressively. However, against good defences and with a shorthanded receiving core I would not put my trust in him.

The game plan here is simple. Run the ball, play great defence, force turnovers, and kick field goals. That is not the recipe for a high-scoring affair. Even if Bridgewater is healthy, the last four Pittsburgh games have ended under. That includes games against Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers, and Derek Carr.

Denver - Pittsburgh Under 40.0
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Best Online Sportsbooks to Bet on the NFL

Find the best online sportsbooks to bet on the NFL below. New users who join through the links underneath can receive an exclusive sign-up bonus, which you can use to bet on NFL games and props throughout the 2021 season.