Andrew Wilson |  Tue 05/01/2021 - 11:06 EST

NCAAF 2021 National Championship Betting Predictions

NCAAF 2021 National Championship Betting Predictions

Top-ranked Alabama faces third-ranked Ohio State in the 2021 NCAA College Football Championship. Find stats and our betting picks on the big game here!

Let’s go through our betting picks for the NCAAF National Championship.

National Championship Preview: Alabama vs. Ohio State

We did not know back in August if we would reach this point of the NCAA Football season. We did not even think some teams were even going to play – including Ohio State. Yet here we are previewing an NCAA Championship game between two of college football’s blueblood programs – which is scheduled for 8:00 PM EST on January 11 at the Orange Bowl in Miami.

Matchup and Key Stats   

Alabama Stats Ohio State Stats
Record 12-0 Record 7-0
48.2 Points per Game 43.4 Points per Game
535.0 Yards per Game 544.0 Yards per Game
19.0 Points Allowed per Game 22.0 Points Allowed per Game
353.2 Yards Allowed per Game 369.9 Yards Allowed per Game
8-4 Against the Spread 4-3 Against the Spread 

Key Stat for Alabama: 11 of 12 wins by 17 points or more – only victory by less against Florida (52-46) in the SEC Championship Game.

Key Stat for Ohio State: Trey Sermon 636 rushing yards in the last three games. Rushed for 232 games in the first four games of the season.

Head-to-Head History: Alabama leads Ohio State all-time 3-1, but Ohio State won the most recent meeting – beating them 42-35 in the 2015 Sugar Bowl – which was also the first-ever College Football Playoffs semifinals.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Betting Picks

To Win the Game sports-interaction sports-interaction To Win the Game

Alabama

1.35 3.35 Ohio State

Before the games on New Years’ game, you would have a hard time finding many people thinking anyone this year could give Alabama a hard time in the College Football Finals. However, after watching Justin Fields dissect Clemson – to the point some pundits have him as a better quarterback than Trevor Lawrence – we have ourselves quite the game.

Alabama has been a monster this season, with a trio of Heisman candidates leading the team to the second-highest scoring offence in Division 1 football. Alabama’s defence also is no slouch, holding teams to 19.0 points this season and six of their last seven opponents to under 17.0 points.  

Ohio State is impressive in their own right, especially the combined play of Fields and running back Trey Sermon have OSU clicking on all cylinders the last few weeks. Their defence is quite as consistent as Bama and against the Crimson Tide trio of Mac Jones, Najee Harris, and Devonta Smith.

Pick: Alabama Crimson Tide (1.35) to Win the 2021 College Football National Championship Game

Alabama Vs. Ohio State Against the Spread Predictions

To Cover sports-interaction sports-interaction To Cover

Alabama

-8.5 (1.91) +8.5 (1.91) Ohio State

In three of the four meetings between these programs, the game was decided by seven or fewer points. This game has all the fixing for something close. Ohio State, even if they are down by two scores, they should be able to put up some points late to cover the spread – especially at 8.5 points.   

Pick: Ohio State +8.5 (1.91)

Over/Under Betting Pick 

Game Total sports-interaction sports-interaction Game Total

Over 76.5

1.91 1.91 Under 76.5

Seeing 76.0 as the over/under for the National Championship games has us believing two things. The first is the football odds bookmakers’ view of Alabama as a comparable team to last year’s LSU team. The second is they like what they have seen from Ohio State on offence the last two weeks.

LSU and Alabama both averaged around 49.0 points per game last season. LSU played Clemson in the 2020 BCS Championship game, beating them 42-25 – a total of 77 points.

Ohio State is coming off a dominant offensive performance against Clemson – specifically by Justin Fields – scoring touchdowns on seven of their 11 drives (excluding their 12th drive, which was three kneel-downs to end the game).

However, 76.0 is a boatload of points. Since the playoff era in College Football, only two of six games have gone over 76.0 points. Overall, though, this has been a year of offensive dominance. Both these teams have scored over 38 or more points in all but one game each. Bet on the over!

Pick: Over 76.0 Points (1.91)

First Quarter Scoring Over/Under

First Quarter Total bet365 bet365 First Quarter Total

Over 16.5

1.91 1.91 Under 16.5

It is difficult to start either of these offences, especially at the start of the game, when you cannot be sure of their offensive game plans. Ohio State scored 14 points in the first quarter against Clemson, while Alabama also dropped 14 points on Notre Dame in less than 11 minutes.

Ohio State’s defence did not start out strong against Clemson, allowing 14 points in the first quarter. Alabama shutout Notre Dame in the first quarter. However, Notre Dame’s approach was to grind down Alabama’s defence with physical play and long drives – which did not work. Ohio State is much more explosive. Expect points on the board to start this game.

Pick: Over 16.5 (1.80) in the First Quarter

Best Online Sportsbooks to Bet on the BCS National Championship Game

Find the best online sportsbooks to bet on the 2021 College Football National Championship game below. They are offering exclusive bonuses to new users joining in 2021, which you can use to bet on College Football, NFL, basketball, and many upcoming sports.

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