As we enter the last month of the 2021 MLB Season, we have one final chance to place some bets on MLB player props. Let's have a look at the betting picks.
MLB Players Props Predictions for September 2021
For our MLB Players Props Predictions for September 2021, we focus on the two most significant awards in each league – the MVP and the Cy Young – including if any Jays can bring a trophy back to Toronto.
Best Bet to Win the 2021 AL MVP
| To Win the AL MVP |  |
|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | 1.05 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 13.76 |
| Rafael Devers | 64.50 |
| Matt Olson | 76.30 |
| Marcu Semien | 76.30 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 78.20 |
| Jose Altuve | 78.20 |
It has been a great season, for the most part, watching Toronto Blue Jays budding superstar Vladimir Guerrero Jr. However, Vlad has faded a bit – especially in August (OPS of only .705 for the month before the Oriole series) while his biggest competition continues to roll.
Shohei Ohtani is all but a lock now to win the 2021 AL MVP Award. He recently became the first Los Angles Angel to ever have 40 home runs and 20 steals in a season. He enters September leading the AL in slugging at .623.
Along with his unbelievable hitting, Ohtani is pitching at a near Cy Young level. Ohtani is 8-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 127 strikeouts in 105.0 innings. He is the first player since Babe Ruth to hit and pitch at this level in 100 years.
Even if the Angels suck, the MLB – unlike other sports – rewards players based on their production, not their team success. Ohtani – bet to win AL MVP.
Best Bet to Win the AL Cy Young Award
| To Win the AL Cy Young | |
|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole | 1.65 |
| Lance Lynn | 2.80 |
| Robbie Ray | 6.00 |
| Carlos Rodon | 11.00 |
| Shohei Ohtanu | 21.00 |
A few missed starts from Gerrit Cole and two rough outings by Lance Lynn in his last four starts have opened the door for Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Robbie Ray to win the AL Cy Young. Ray has been electric this season, especially in August.
Ray ends August leading the AL in strikeouts (202) after picking up ten more against the Oriole on August 30. But strikeouts are not the only thing impressive about Ray. Ray is tops in AL pitching WAR (based on Baseball-Reference). Ray’s WHIP is better than Lance Lynn, and his ERA is lower than Gerrit Cole.
There are some big games upcoming for Ray and Jays. If he keeps performing at this level, he has a chance to end the season as the best pitcher and baseball. That could make him the first Blue Jay since Roy Halladay in 2003 to win the Cy Young.
Best Bet to Win 2021 NL MVP
| To Wn the NL MVP | |
|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 1.36 |
| Max Muncy | 8.98 |
| Freddie Freeman | 9.1 |
| Bryce Harper | 11.95 |
| Joey Votto | 21.25 |
| Trea Turner | 30.44 |
| Austin Riley | 31.35 |
While Fernando Tatis Jr. enters September as the favourite to win the 2021 NL MVP Award, we see better value elsewhere. For one, Tatis Jr. has dipped a bit since the start of July. Tatis’s batting average and OPS since July 1 are .246 and .830 (in 36 games), compared to .300 and 1.092 from the start of the season to June 30.
Injuries are part of the reason his numbers have tailed off a bit. If he does miss any more time, he may not play enough games this year to garner the majority of the MVP votes.
Looking at the other guys on the list, the name we like to win the award is Joey Votto. No hitter in baseball has been as good as Joey Votto in the second half of the season. Since the All-Star break, Votto has 17 home runs, 43 RBIs, and an OPS of 1.084. With Votto coming alive since July, the Reds are 32-21 and holding the second Wild Card spot in the NL.
Votto needs to have a productive September to win the award. Historically, September is Votto’s best month (or second-best month) of his career. Votto bats a career-best .311 in September, and his OPS of .959 ranks second. You will not get a better betting value than Joey Votto going into September.
Best Bet to the NL Cy Young Award
| To Win the NL Cy Young | |
|---|---|
| Walker Buehler | 1.82 |
| Corbin Burnes | 2.97 |
| Zach Wheeler | 6.30 |
| Brandon Woodruff | 8.03 |
| Max Scherzer | 15.63 |
| Kevin Gausman | 21.68 |
| Freddy Peralta | 50.40 |
| Jacob Degrom | 81.00 |
Injuries derailed Jacob DeGrom’s season – who was the favourite to win the NL Cy Young for much of the year. With him out of the mix, we have a tight race going into the final month of the season. The current favourite Walker Buehler and top challenger Corbin Burnes are the two guys we will focus on.
Both players have the advantage depending on what stats you look at. Buehler leads the NL in ERA (2.02), ERA+ (193), has a better WHIP (.917 vs. 0.947), and more innings pitched (169.0 vs. 133.0) than Burnes.
Burnes leads the NL in FIP (fielding independent pitching at 1.64), strikeouts per nine (12.2) and strikeout to walk ratio (6.92). He has two more strikeouts than Buehler (180 to 178) despite pitching 36.0 fewer innings.
So, of the two pitchers, who is the better bet? We are going with Corbin Burnes because of the remaining schedule. The Brewers have 13 games left against the second and third lowest-scoring teams in the NL.
The Brewers have fewer games left against the Giants – the top NL team than the Dodgers (four vs. six and avoid the Reds, Braves, and Padres – all teams in the playoff race. The Dodgers also have one final series at Coors Field. Buehler has struggled at Coors Field, with an ERA of 4.43 in seven games.
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