Fri 04/06/2021 - 05:05 EDT

Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs Logan Paul Betting Prediction

Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs Logan Paul Betting Prediction
Initially scheduled for February, Logan Paul vs. Floyd Mayweather is now taking place on June 5. You can find our thoughts and the best bets to make on the exhibition boxing match here. 

Best Bets to Make on Paul vs. Mayweather

Finally, after some loose plans and postponements, we get the exhibition fight everyone wants to see on June 5. Since the plans for the contest are finally concrete – the best online sportsbooks are opening up plenty of great prop bets. You can find our best bets to make on Logan Paul vs. Floyd Mayweather and read our original thoughts (from January) on the fight afterwards.

Who Will Get Knocked Down First

There is something about these Paul brothers catching their opponents off-guard. Now Mayweather is a much superior opponent than anyone Logan or Jake have faced. However, he has been away from boxing for almost four years now. Four years is a long time to keep your boxing skills and IQ at peak performance. We can see Paul coming in hot and heavy – enough to knock over Mayweather early in the fight. Once he is knocked over – the fight will really begin.

Pick: Floyd Mayweather (4.50) First Fight Knocked Down

If neither fighter is knocked down, this bet has no action and is refunded. That is the reason we are going with – this bet over betting “Will Floyd Mayweather be Knocked Down?”  - despite comparable odds.

First Fighter to Bleed

After Mayweather is knocked down, he will go to work on Logan Paul. He will use his decades of experience to attack Paul in an efficient matter – grinding away on specific spots. Because Mayweather’s approach will focus on certain areas on Paul’s body – he is more likely to open wounds on Paul and cause him to bleed first in the match.

Pick: Logan Paul (-500) First Fighter to Bleed 

Will this Fight go the Distance?

Since this is an exhibition fight, the length is eight rounds, not 12 rounds. Cutting off a third of the rounds helped the exhibition fight between Mike Tyson and Roy Jones Jr. go the distance. And unlike those guys, this is not two heavyweights in the ring.

I do not think Mayweather will try to knock out Paul, and I do not think Paul has the skills or experience to knock out Mayweather (no one has in 50 fights). While there should be a few big hits in this fight, most of this fight will be dancing in the ring and technical fighting – making for a fight that should go the distance.

Pick: Yes (-150) the Fight Will go the Distance

You can read our original thoughts on the fight below. We have updated the odds to reflect what is available in May, not the betting odds from early January.

Original Thoughts on Paul vs. Mayweather

Logan Paul and Floyd Mayweather Jr. meet in the ring on February 20 for an exhibition boxing match. Paul is a big underdog against Mayweather, but with a large advantage in height and weight, some are pegging him for the upset.  

Main Event Predictions – Logan Paul vs. Floyd Mayweather Jr.

The main event – and as of January 5, the only announced fight – features one of the most accomplished boxers of all time Floyd Mayweather (50-0) taking on Logan Paul (0-1-1).

We recently witnessed Logan's brother Jake Paul knockout Nate Robinson. Of course, Nate Robinson is a former NBA player with less boxing experience than either Paul's brother, meaning an apples-to-apples comparison between the two fights is stupid – if not impossible.

In this fight, Mayweather has a huge edge over Paul in the fight experience. Mayweather started boxing before Logan Paul was born – picking up 84 wins as an amateur two years before Paul was born. Mayweather has gone on to fight – and beat – many of the best fighters of the last 25 years.

Some of his most impressive wins came against Manny Pacquiao, Canelo Alvarez, Oscar De La Hoya, and Conor McGregor. McGregor – an MMA fighter, not a traditional boxer – held his own against Mayweather, lasting to the tenth round. Side note, Jake Paul is trying to angle a fight against Conor McGregor, but we do not know if or when that will happen.  

Logan Paul has two “professional” boxing matches in his career. Both were against KSI – another YouTube star turned boxer. It is hard to have much confidence in Paul when comparing his experience and record to Mayweather – especially considering Paul did not win either fight against KSI.

Now, where Logan Paul does hold an edge is in height and weight. Paul is listed at 6’2” and 181lbs. While some may say that is a bit generous if it is exactly his height he is six inches taller than Mayweather. In terms of weight, Paul also holds the edge. Mayweather fights in different weight classes, but at his highest, he is a light-middleweight – which translates to 154lbs.

The difference in size – and age – are having some early bettors liking Paul to win. However, we cannot ourselves see him pulling off the upset. Logan Paul focuses on many different endeavours – meaning he likely cannot commit enough time and resources to train.

We also saw – when Mike Tyson and Roy Jones Jr. boxed back in last November, that boxers can keep their power and some of their skills pretty sharp in their “twilight years.” Overall, we are taking Floyd to control and win the fight.

Pick: Floyd Mayweather Jr. (1.05) to Win the Fight

Betting Tip on the Fight– Watch the Line Movement

When this fight was first announced back in early December, bookmakers were setting their betting lines on the fight even heavy in favour of Floyd Mayweather. Odds have opened betting at 1.02 on Mayweather and 16.00 on Logan Paul.

Public money was heavy on Logan Paul, causing the lines to adjust. If you like Logan Paul to pull off the upset – not our choice to win, but some people see the value – you should bet on him as soon as possible. If you like Floyd Mayweather to win the fight, you should monitor the betting line, as it could continue to move as long as the public is seeing the underdog value in Paul.

Betting Strategy – Look for Prop Markets

We have not yet seen many prop markets open on this match – or even any undercard fights announced yet – but we assume eventually more stuff will be announced and available.

We like the over on the rounds in this fight. Mayweather is a more technical fighter in his later days and he may not have the size to knockout Paul without first wearing him down. Also do not believe Paul is a good enough fighter yet to catch a veteran like Mayweather off guard. Also do not expect Mayweather to prepare for a fight against a larger fighter.

Take the OVER TOTAL Rounds when they open prop markets.

You can also consider parlaying prop bets with Floyd Mayweather Jr. to win. At 1.07 odds – which are better than they were when they open – you are not getting much juice on your wager. Get your juice up by throwing in something else with Mayweather to win - it could even be a bet from another sport or event - which is a good strategy if you wait until much closer to the date of the boxing match. 

Best Online Sportsbooks to Bet on Paul vs. Mayweather

Find the best online sportsbooks to bet on Logan Paul vs. Floyd Mayweather Jr. below. They are offering exclusive welcome bonuses through the links underneath. Grab the bonus today and start 2021 great!

 

Category : Sports Blog

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