Canadian Politics Betting Futures and Predictions
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Canadian Politics Betting Futures and Predictions

Get our thoughts and betting predictions on Canadian politics and elections here.

While many elections are a ways off on the horizon, we can still look forward at Canadian politics betting futures and make some betting predictions on upcoming elections.

Liberals and Conservatives Likely Favourites to Win Next Federal Election

To Win the Next Federal ElectionSports Interaction
ConservativeTBD
LiberalsTBD
NDPTBD
PPCTBD
GreenTBD

Odds on politics - including the next Federal Election will open for betting at Sports Interaction closer to the election date.

While we do not know when the next Federal Election is – as it could be in four years or under two like the last one – we can make some super early predictions on the outcome.

To recap the last election, the Liberals retained their minority government, while the Conservatives won the popular vote. Calling the election in August was a questionable move by the Liberals, who saw their chance at a majority government evaporate over the ensuing weeks.

Canadian politics have trends – with Liberals and Conservatives switching as the party in power every few elections. In the last forty years, the party in power has held the power for two to four elections. Typically, by the fourth term, public opinion sways to the other party – meaning a switch in power is inevitable. That is why – a month after the 2021 Federal Election – we like the Conservatives to win the next vote.  

Conservative Party To Win the Next Federal Election
TBD
Sports Interaction

Will Justin Trudeau Run Again for Prime Minister?

Will Justin Trudeau Run for Prime Minister Again?Sports Interaction
YesTBD
NoTBD

A fourth term seems unlikely for Justin Trudeau – as he likely steps aside and the Liberal Party nominates a new candidate for Prime Minister. Between the mistake of calling an election early – which cost Trudeau in popularity and votes – and the campaign which was tedious and draining it seems likely this is his last go at Prime Minister.

Liberal Party betting picks

Most thoughts are by the time the next election comes, the pandemic will be a much more minor issue in Canada – with mandates on masks and vaccines gone (assuming Canada remains on its current trajectory).

It could also mean the Liberals want another voice to lead their party in the post-Pandemic world, while Justin Trudeau is happy to move into his post-politics career – where his decisions to vacation on specific days are not criticized by his constituents and the opposition.   

No Justin Trudeau Will Not Run Again for Prim Minister
TBD
Sports Interaction

Will the People’s Party of Canada Win a Seat at the Federal Election?

Will the PPC Win a Seat Next Federal Election?Sports Interaction
YesTBD
NoTBD

Maxime Bernier and the People’s Party of Canada saw the largest increase in percentage points following the 2021 Federal Election. The PPC went from 1.62% of the vote in 2019 to 4.94% of the vote in 2021 – yet failed to win a seat.

The PPC will always have a difficult time winning seats. While their message of anti-masks, anti-vaccines, and anti-lockdowns had appeal in 2021 – they likely need a new message going forward if they are ever to get a representative in Parliament.

While they have time to regroup and build for their next campaign – they face a bigger problem they have little control over – how to retain Conservative voters who feel voting for the PPC is a waste.

Take the riding of Sault Ste. Marie. The Liberals won the riding by just under 250 votes. The PPC collected 1,943 votes in the riding. If 250 of those voters changed to the Conservatives, the Conservatives would have won the riding.

People will vote strategically. The Conservatives tried to get this message across by saying “A vote for the PPC is a vote for the Liberals.” In the next election, people likely will take more heed to those words. Because of that and the fringe nature of the PPC, it is difficult seeing them performing better in the next Federal Election.

No PPC Will Not Win Any Seats in the Next Federal Election
TBD
Sports Interaction

Will Doug Ford get Re-Elected as the Premier of Ontario?

To Win the Next Ontario ElectionSports Interaction
PCTBD
LiberalsTBD
NDPTBD

Next June, Ontarians return to the polls to decide the next Premier of Ontarian. Incumbent Doug Ford has had a rocky go of it as Premier. His approval rating has dropped as low as 26% (September 2019) and reached a high of 62% in June 2020. As of September 2021, his approval is 42%, up 2% from his approval rating when elected. 

will doug ford be reelected

This election is a tough one to call. Ontarians are still bitter at the last Liberal government for some questionable decisions. It led to the Liberals winning only seven seats – marking the first time since 1975 the Liberals were not in power or the opposition in Ontario.

While there are no betting lines, polls in October have Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives favoured to win the June 2022 election. However, it looks like they will lose their majority government – meaning a coalition between the Liberals and NDP could be the outcome.

We actually like the NDP – who ranks third in the polls – to challenge for leadership in Ontario. The Liberals candidate -  Del Duca – is a bit of an unknown. What we are learning about him is through attack ads linking him to Kathleen Wynne. If the NDP can campaign right and flip some seats in the GTA the PC won, it could be a close election. It is just difficult to predict if they can win enough rural ridings to win the election. 

Progressive Conservatives To Win the Next Ontario Election
TBD
Sports Interaction

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