Thu 09/11/2017 - 13:54 EST

Best NFL Picks Straight Up for Week 10

Best NFL Picks Straight Up for Week 10
The NFL enters the second half of the regular season in Week 10, with 14 exciting games. Ten weeks into this season, over three-quarters of the NFL is within two games of a playoff spot. With the race for the 12 playoff spots heating up, Week 10 is full of meaningful matchups that may go a long way to shaping the landscape of the league at the end of the season.

The Playoff Race Heats Up In Week 10

Week 10 of the NFL seasons brings a busy slate of games ranging from the battle for the top pick (Giants at 49ers) to divisional rivalries (Packers and Bears) to big surprise teams looking to get back in the postseason (Saints vs. Bills). Week 10 presents some challenges, including four AFC-NFC crossover games, which are known for being tricky to predict.

The best game of the Week 10 goes to either New Orleans in Buffalo, Minnesota vs. Washington or the Dallas Cowboys against the Atlanta Falcons. These three matchups, all with teams at or above .500, will shake up the standings and shuffle teams in and out of the playoffs. For those looking for pure entertainment, the Jets visiting the Buccaneers promises to be an entertaining football game. 

Moneyline Picks And Betting Previews

Coming off their bye week well-rested, the Minnesota Vikings are a small road favourite against the Redskins. The Vikings, even without a consistent signal-caller behind center, have found ways to win. The Vikings defense is amongst the best in the NFL, ranking in the top-five for points allowed, rushing yards allowed and yards per play. Their offence, through a mixture of ball control and smart play-calling, is playing very well this season and actually ranks ahead of Washington in many significant offensive categories. Vikings win on the road. 

In what could be the most entertaining game of the weekend, the Buccaneers go into their fifth home game of the season as an underdog. The Buccaneers are one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL this season, with nagging shoulder problems to quarterback Jameis Winston being the major culprit. With Winston sidelined for this game, the Bucs may actually have a better chance with Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick has twice entered a game this season to relieve an injured Winston, and with him, the offence looked better. In fact, in the two games, both quarterbacks played, a Fitzpatrick led offence outscored Winston 40 to 3. Look for the Bucs to pull off the upset and also consider betting the over. 

The Buffalo Bills have been one of the most impressive teams at home in the NFL this season. They are using their ruckus home crowd to create a terrible environment for visiting teams, which in turns benefits their defence. The Bills home defence, has two major strengths, forcing turnovers and stopping the rushing game. The Bills have the fourth best home rushing defence in the NFL. As they slow down the run game, they force opposing teams to throw. Although they give up a lot of passing yardage (3rd most at home) they have forced 11 takeaways at home and limit teams in the redzone. With the weather worsening, Brees may have a difficult time outside and slip enough for the Bills to win. 

The Jacksonville Jaguars are one of the biggest surprises in the NFL this season. Their defence ranks first in the NFL in points against per game, passing yards against per game and sacks. Although Philip Rivers and the Chargers have won six straight versus Jacksonville, this Jaguars team is has been giving opposing offences nightmares all season and the Jaguars offence has been efficient and, most importantly, limiting turnovers. Running back Leonard Fournette will be back in Week 10, and he should help the Jaguars control the game and lead them to their sixth win.

This game will be the second meeting between the team division rivals this season, with the first coming back in Week 4. The Packers slapped around the Bears 35-14, but since that Week 4 game, both teams have seen their fortunes change. The Packers lost Aaron Rodgers in Week 7 and since have looked like one of the worst teams in the NFL. The Packers offence seems lost without Rodgers, struggling to move the ball. The Bears offensive attack, based on ball control, utilizing multiple running backs and play action should keep the Packers offence off the field and force them to take too many chances when they do get on the field. Bet “Da Bears.”   

It difficult to predict a team will go 0-16 (which the Browns almost did last season), but again ten weeks into the season, the Browns remain winless. The Lions and Browns do not have much of a history to consider, having played four times since the Browns re-joined the NFL in 1999. Detroit is 1-0 at home against Cleveland, winning 38-37 back in 2009. That game was a long time ago, and the Lions have been trending up since that season, while the Browns have the worst record in the NFL since 2010. The Browns are on a 16-game road losing streak. Take the Lions, even if the payout is small and parlay it with another good bet. 

If not for the Deshaun Watson injury, this would be the game of the week. However, without Watson, the Texans offence looks inept, and the group enters Week 10 as one of the biggest underdogs of the weekend. The Rams are only 2-2 at home this season, but both wins did come against an AFC South teams. Before this season, it may have been possible for the Texans defence to make up for the loss of Deshaun Watson. However, in 2017 the same cannot be said as the Texans are allowing the fourth most points to be scored per game and have allowed 850 yards in their last two games. The Rams should rollover Houston on Sunday afternoon.

The game that no one is excited (except everyone who reads this preview and wagers on it), features two teams with a combined 1-15 record. The Giants look like they have given up on the season, after being humiliated at home by the Rams 51-17 in Week 9. The 49ers are underdogs for the 13th straight game (going 1-11 straight-up). However, they look better than the Giants going into Week 10. Bet the 49ers to crack the goose egg and get their first victory of the season. Fun side note on this game, the Giants and 49ers have combined to win nine Super Bowls, more than any other matchup in the NFL this weekend.

There are two interesting statistics that could point towards a Broncos’ upset. First and maybe, most surprising is Belichick is only 10-8 in his career coming out of the bye week (including a loss at home last year to Seattle). The second is the Denver Broncos are the only team in the league Tom Brady has a losing record against. His struggles against the Broncos are magnified in Denver, where he is only 3-7 with a quarterback rating 17 points lower than his career average. Still, even with those facts, it is hard to bet on Denver, who have been a mess on offence the last four weeks. 

NFL MVP Props And Odds Update

Since every team and just about every MVP candidate has played at least eight games, Week 10 is an excellent time to revisit the odds. After nine weeks of football action, the frontrunner for MVP is Carson Wentz. Wentz is having a phenomenal second season, as he is on pace to be the first Eagles quarterback to throw over 40 touchdowns in a season. Wentz opened the year at +10000, but now sit at even odds, ahead of Tom Brady, Russell Wilson and Le’Veon Bell.

Although Wentz has been great this season, the best pick for MVP could be Drew Brees. Brees has the fifth best MVP odds at +1600 but may see his chances increase if the Saints continue to stay atop the NFC South or at least remain in the playoff hunt. Brees is playing some of the best football of his career while leading a more balanced offensive attack and cutting down on turnovers. 

Another factor to consider when picking Brees is the nostalgia edge. Brees has never won NFL MVP, and at 38 he may not get another chance. If he can get his touchdown totals up (currently on pace for 26) and the Saints finish 11-5 or 12-4, he could take home his first ever MVP. 

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Category : Sports Blog

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